SITREP #012 · WEEKLY SITUATION REPORT · 28 SEP – 2 OCT 2026

The Event Night

The overnight tape ran $22.8B across five sessions, up 3.5 percent on the week, and $6.5B of it printed on a single night: the session that followed Micron's earnings. Breadth rebuilt from 31 percent on the Sunday open to 71 percent by the Micron night. Underneath, August PCE and September payrolls both missed, the 30-year Treasury still touched its highest level since 2002, and the October rate hike was mostly priced out.

Sapinover Intelligence · Monday, October 5, 2026 · Overnight figures computed from the three-venue pipeline; inflation, jobs, rates and earnings verified against published coverage; index moves from Yahoo Finance weekly coverage; the ATS report figures from our published edition.

00BLUF

//The Stack

Five layers of market plumbing, and where each one stands this week. Click any layer for the detail.

01The Tape

Five sessions by overnight trade date. Each row is the session that runs from the previous evening into the morning of that date, so the Thursday row is the Wednesday-night session that followed Micron's report. The week opened heavy, thinned for two nights, spiked on the event and settled back.

Notional in millions. Breadth is the share of BlueOcean overnight names printing up into the open. Moon reported $5M, then zero for three nights, then $79M on Friday; we show what each venue reported and draw no conclusion from the gap. Three-venue week total $22.83B against $22.05B the week before, +3.5 percent. BlueOcean ran $18.14B, Bruce $4.60B, Moon $0.09B.

The breadth path is the cleaner story than the notional path. It started at 31.0 percent on the Sunday open, with the previous week's bond selloff still in the tape, stayed at 36.7 on Monday night, then jumped to 65.1 percent on Tuesday night, the session that ended before the PCE print. It held at 71.1 percent on the Micron night and 70.3 percent on the session ahead of Friday's jobs report. Breadth recovered, and on the night that carried a scheduled catalyst it recovered with size behind it. That is the condition missing last week.

The names underneath

The semiconductor and memory complex held 51.0 percent of BlueOcean nightly notional, ranging 46.9 to 56.0 percent across the five sessions, and peaking on the Micron night. SOXL led at $3.10B, with its leveraged wrapper peers TQQQ and SOXS in the top six. Micron moved from third to second at $1.35B and printed $497M on the event night alone, 2.3 times its average on the other four. Micron reported revenue of $54.2B and adjusted earnings of $33.42 a share, above consensus, and guided its next quarter to about $61.5B. The stock was flat to slightly lower after hours. The overnight tape showed the heavy participation, and the price showed no surprise.

The weekend session is the first read on Monday's tone. The Sunday evening session, trade date October 5, ran $4.56B across three venues at 72.9 percent breadth, with BlueOcean at $3.55B, Bruce $0.92B and Moon $0.09B. SOXL led again at $491M. A Sunday open of that size at that breadth is the opposite of the 31 percent open that began the week before.

02Soft Data, Hard Yields

The week's surprise was a bond market that would not take the hint. August core PCE rose 0.2 percent on the month and 3.0 percent on the year, against 0.3 and 3.3 expected, and headline PCE eased to 3.4 percent. The Bureau of Economic Analysis changed how it measures several components in this release, including legal services, software and portfolio management, which complicates the comparison. Friday's September payroll report was weaker still: 29,000 jobs against roughly 84,000 expected, unemployment up to 4.2 percent, and the prior two months revised down by 60,000 combined, with hourly earnings up only 3.0 percent on the year.

Long yields did not follow the data. The 30-year Treasury crossed 5.60 percent on Tuesday, its highest since 2002, and the 10-year closed the week near 5.3 percent after printing 5.298 percent on the PCE morning. Global long-end yields made fresh cycle highs the same week. The bond market is pricing something the monthly prints do not capture, and the equity indexes showed the strain as a split rather than a drop:

The Nasdaq posted its third straight weekly gain and an intraday record, led by Nvidia at an all-time high above $237 and a market value past $5.7 trillion, while the Dow fell more than a percent. VIX closed Friday around 15, down about 6 percent on the day. A 15 handle on volatility under a 24-year high in the long bond is the same surface calm we flagged last week, now with the Nasdaq at a record on top of it.

Two inputs kept the long end honest. The first is oil. The US-Israeli war with Iran, which began on February 28, still has Brent above $100 a barrel, about $101 on Monday, against WTI near $91 on Friday. The G7 said Friday it will release 100 million barrels of oil and fuel products, starting with a front-loaded tranche of diesel, and OPEC+ producers agreed Sunday to hold November output steady, with the next review on November 1. The release is the nearer-term barrel; it does not remove the premium in Brent. The second input arrived Monday. The ISM services index slipped to 54.9 from 55.4, still expanding, but its prices-paid gauge jumped to 74.0, the highest since July 2022. Soft payrolls and hot services prices now sit on the same tape, which is why hike odds fell and the 30-year did not.

For policy, the data did its work on the front end. CME FedWatch put the October hike at about 23 percent right after the payroll report, and prediction markets had it near 17 percent by Monday, down from roughly 69 percent a week earlier. December moved the other way: markets still price a hike by year end above 70 percent. The Fed hiked to 3.75–4.00 percent on September 16, and the long bond is saying the cycle is not over.

03Forward Calendar

• Tuesday, October 13. Third-quarter earnings season begins. The calendar is light until then, so oil and long yields will set the tone for the first half of the week.
• Wednesday, October 14. September CPI. The first inflation print before the FOMC meeting and, in the view of one regional-bank economist quoted this weekend, more powerful for the next decision than the jobs report was.
• October 27–28. FOMC, no SEP. A hold is priced near 83 percent. The statement language on December is the live variable.
• October 2 to December 4. SIP UAT weekends. Six industry User Acceptance Testing weekends over production multicast channels; the first was scheduled for this past weekend.
• December 6. SIP 23x5 production launch. Consolidated market data extends to Sunday 9 PM through Friday 8 PM ET. The overnight data gap closes.

The rail

04What We Shipped

A heavy week on our side as well. Four items, all public.

The ATS report, refreshed. The Venue Intelligence ATS report now covers 26 weeks, March 2 to August 24, with both FINRA reporting tiers complete, and every earlier edition is archived and linked. Over the window 35 venues printed 335.0 billion shares. The five largest venues held their rank and four of them lost share. The two largest gains went to venues that do not compete as faster continuous dark pools: OneChronos, an expressive-bidding auction, took 1.11 points, and Blue Ocean, which trades only while the US market is closed, took 1.15 points to 4.33 percent and is now the ninth-largest ATS by share volume. Overnight venues together are 5.0 percent of ATS share volume. Intelligent Cross leads at 16.14 percent.

A FIX, DTCC and tag 336 guide. Published as a public explainer with a stamped PDF: how TradingSessionID (336) carries a trade from execution to DVP settlement as markets move to 23 hours a day, five days a week. Every claim rests on documents DTCC and the FIX Trading Community publish.

One Share, Four Prices. Our long-form feature on the same stock trading in four constructions that price, settle and identify differently: the lit share, the overnight and weekend ATS print, the on-chain token and the wrapper.

A corrected filing monitor. The automated ATS-N monitor now captures initial registrations and withdrawals, parses cover-page-only amendments, retires filings EDGAR has removed, and no longer reads a withdrawn pending filing (Form ATS-N-W) as the closure of a live venue. A withdrawal of a pending filing is not a cessation, and the regulatory page now says so.

05Get SITREP

##Sources

SITREP is a weekly situation report on market structure. Overnight notional figures reflect Sapinover's overnight pipeline and are not comparable to full-market consolidated volume. This analysis is for information only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation. For methodology see the support page.